News -- Publication investigating excess mortality in Norway in 2024

News

We are pleased to announce the publication of our new research paper in the Scandinavian Journal of Public Health: “Excess all-cause mortality in Norway in 2024”.

Our analysis shows that Norway experienced significant excess mortality in 2024, with nearly 2,900 more deaths than expected based on pre-pandemic trends. Alarmingly, excess deaths were not only concentrated among the elderly but also present in younger age groups. For example, mortality among those aged 20–39 was almost 18% higher than expected, while 1–19-year-olds saw a 37% increase.

These findings suggest that Norway’s mortality decline, which had been steady for decades, has now stalled or even reversed since 2022. While many factors may play a role, the unmitigated spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its long-term health consequences are likely important contributors.

We hope this study helps shed light on the ongoing health impacts of the pandemic and contributes to discussions on future public health strategies.

The paper is published in Scandinavian Journal of Public Health.

Abstract

Aims: The Norwegian Institute of Public Health calculated excess mortality for Norway in 2024 using a reference period that included 2023—a year with significant excess mortality—and concluded there was no excess mortality in 2024. This study estimates excess mortality in 2024 using only pre-pandemic years as the reference, providing a basis for identifying excess COVID-19 related mortality.

Methods: We estimated excess mortality in 2024 using a negative binomial model trained on 2010–2019 data. Deaths were modelled by age (0, 1–19, 20–39, 40–64, 65–79, 80–89 and 90+ years) and sex, with population offsets. Expected mortality was projected using both a conservative approach where the prediction for 2023 was carried forward to 2024 and a non-conservative linear extrapolation to 2024.

Results: The conservative approach estimated 2898 excess deaths (7.0%; 95% prediction interval (PI), 4.9–9.1%) in 2024. Significant excess mortality was observed in age groups 1–19 (45 deaths; 36.6% excess), 20–39 (107 deaths; 17.6% excess), 40–64 (439 deaths; 10.6% excess) and 65–79 (1631 deaths; 13.7% excess). Ages 1–39 and 40–64 accounted for approximately 5% and 15% of total excess mortality, respectively.

Conclusions: Persistent excess mortality from 2022 to 2024 suggests a new elevated mortality baseline and a reduction or reversal of Norway’s pre-pandemic mortality decline. Although multiple factors may contribute, given sustained excess mortality since 2022, our findings suggest that the unmitigated spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Norway since 2022 can be associated with increased mortality, particularly for those under 65.